It was pointed out to me in a comment today that not only will e-readers get ever less-expensive (as most certainly all have expected them to, as pieces of electronics), but we now have another column predicting the Death of dedicated e-reader devices.
Forrester seems most to blame for the false reasoning used in this most recent wish-for-attention column (and they're getting it) because Forrester sees tablets and e-readers in a contest that e-readers cannot "win."
Are simpler cars in ongoing contests with multi-featured cars that the simpler cars must "win" or "die"? Will they stop manufacturing sports car models because they are not as easy-to-operate and aren't able to carry families on vacation trips? Will the sports cars "lose" to the family sedan? Simplistic black & white thinking carries the day usually.
I've no patience with wishful thinking based on not understanding different technologies nor reasons why one technology, predicted soon dead by the same experts mentioned last year, proved so popular in the last year during the time that the iPad certainly claimed hearts and minds. Buyers knew the difference, if not some gadget columnists who think only in terms of 'appearance' (drab, plain, retro) and carry mainly the "cool kid" mentality as we saw for the last year and a half until many of them decided one type of technology actually DID seem "cool" to many hoping to just read books rather than flash around playing games and surfing the web at every chance (I'm one of the latter).
I'm behind in blogging because I was away, but I will (b)log this one before the others that I've put on a todo-list because obviously there will be much written about the latest research opinions, as happened in 2010 when all predicting the end of e-readers by the end of the year often seemed to hope they were right.
Inevitably, yes, if/when we can get color screens for dedicated-readers while keeping the relaxing quality of e-Ink effect on eyes that don't want LCD screens for reading novels, inevitably today's e-readers (or even today's tablets) will not be wanted or needed, even if dedicated e-readers are light to carry because they are dedicated to one activity. Everything in life does change.
I decided to blog the response I made to a note in the blog's Comment areas, which was a helpful link to the story (because e-readers WILL drop in price as was the comment-writer's focus, which is the good and obvious point of some of the researcher opinions).
I'm still reviewing the news of an inevitable Amazon Android Tablet (which I initially blogged (August 2010) when a long-time Computerworld columnist reported receiving confirmation from his Amazon sources in August that there WOULD be an Android tablet from Amazon.
The recent information on the technology involved in an Amazon order for tablets from Quanta Computer (with screen-panel properties licensed by E-Ink Holdings (for fringe field switching -- which is for LCD screens) has been vague and I'll write on that later today. Since some columnists have interpreted the "2nd half of 2011" as "by the holidays 2011" because of the time to produce, test and stock these, I hadn't jumped on it yet as the news traveled fast on Twitter, Facebook and Kindle forums, where I was involved in discussions.
Back to the column on latest expert research. Here's my response (slightly modified for the blog-post) to the Huffington Post article on the 'demise' of the dedicated e-reader and its days "being numbered." Catchy thought, no?
' Didn't Forrester and assorted columnists predict the end of the Kindle itself by the end of 2010 due to the popularity of the iPad and other tablets?
Also, never in a truly idiotic presentation of the premise for the death of dedicated e-readers does the article mention Forrester speaking to the issue of E-INK (which they may have! and it was columnist idiocy instead that produced the gist re the death of dedicated e-readers).
Or, it may have been Forrester's. The many studies done have been wrong about the popularity of e-reader devices before, when the iPad arrived, asking leading questions in their surveys.
I have [and enjoy] a NookColor and I intend to get the Amazon tablet if it comes, for the color magazine capability and for portable web-browsing but with Amazon features that I hope will be better done in software than is the B&N tablet-reader.
I would *never* give up the e-Ink model for an LCD tablet, for reading books. And there are voluminous notes on forums that say the same thing, by people who own tablets or semi-tablets along with their Kindles or other e-Ink readers.
If years from now they have non-LCD and e-paper-type capabilities for relaxing reading (eye care for many), along with color on a par with vibrant color in LCD tablets, then the dedicated e-reader may not be needed (though they'll always be lighter) -- but not mentioning e-Ink here at all is sheer ignorance when predicting demise of current e-readers due to interest in tablets. It reminds me of the columnist who idiotically placed a picture of a tombstone at the head of his column last summer with the wording that the Kindle would die and be buried as of 2010 due to the birth of the iPad. Experts want what they want.
There is a wish there that's just unseemly and speaks to a special kind of extreme love for electronic sleekness over everything else that has to do with their own disliking the "drab" or "retro" *look* of e-ink readers. Actual functionality is rarely addressed.
But you're right in your own emphasis that e-reader prices will go down. I thought most people have seen this with ALL electronics.
The FLIP camera? GOD. It has the same end result as a fine in-camera HD movie thing. It's not remotely like e-Ink vs color. '
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